Photo : Anton Novoderezhkin/TASS
Photo : Anton Novoderezhkin/TASS
War in Ukraine: Days 605 & 606
By Rishika Yadav
War on Ground
On 22 October, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President during his meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Turkey’s President discussed the Ukrainian Peace Formula and the importance of Turkey’s role. Both leaders highlighted the significance of defence and recovery efforts.
On 22 October, National Police of Ukraine reported on persisting attacks by Russia in the Kherson region. According to the report, civil infrastructures were targeted using rocket launchers, mortars, artillery, aviation, and UAVs. Civilian casualties have been reported in Berislavsky, and Kakhovsky districts. The police have initiated 13 criminal proceedings for war crimes.
On 22 October, a Russia’s missile struck a post office in Kharkiv Oblast. It killed six and injured 14. Oleh Syniehubov, Kharkiv’s Governor, said: “This is an exclusively civilian object, the Russians committed yet another terror against the civilian population of Kharkiv region!”
On 21 October, according to Serhiy Nikiforov, Press Secretary of Zelenskyy, announced the upcoming schedule for the third meeting of security and policy advisers with Zelenskyy on the “peace formula.” Norway, France, and the UK, are expected to participate with an aim to endorse Ukraine’s peace formula.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 22 October, RT reported on Russia’s track to become China’s largest trading partner after the US. Igor Sechin, Rosneft CEO stated that the trade between both had increased by 30 per cent to USD 176 billion in since 2023. He highlighted that China’s economic model is currently resistant to external shocks which will help in long-term development. He added: “There is every reason to believe that trade turnover between our countries will exceed the target of $200 billion this year.”
On 21 October, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation summoned a Czech Embassy representative in Moscow. The move took place to address the Czech Republic’s stance on the recent Ukraine’s village bombing. Russia denied responsibility for the airstrike and expressed disapproval of Czech Republic support and weapon provision to Ukraine. It claimed that it fuels regional instability.
On 21 October, Viktor Afzalov, Russia’s Colonel General, was named the new commander-in-chief of Russia’s Aerospace Forces. He succeeded Sergey Surovikin, Russia’s Army General. Afzalov, who previously served as the acting commander, has an extensive military background and experience in air defence. This appointment marked a significant change in leadership within the aerospace forces.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 21 October, the UK’s Ministry of Defence gave its intelligence update on Ukraine. It reported that Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, announced that Russia will initiate fighter patrols in the eastern Black Sea. It will be initiated by using MiG-311 interceptor aircraft armed with Kh-47M2 KINZHAL air-launched ballistic missiles. The move is linked to increased US maritime presence in the eastern Mediterranean. He emphasized on Russia’s weapon capabilities despite issues observed during the Ukraine’s conflict.
On 20 October, the Federal Government of Germany announced it would provide extensive military assistance to Ukraine, with a focus on enhancing security capacity. Funding for this initiative in 2023 amounts to EUR 5.4 billion, with additional authorizations for the following years reaching EUR 10.5 billion. Military support included armoured vehicles, air defence systems, artillery, engineering capabilities, protective equipment, logistics, and combat readiness materials. These contributions are aimed to bolster Ukraine’s defence capabilities. This support demonstrated a commitment to strengthening Ukraine’s security amidst regional challenges.
On 20 October, Lloyd J Austin III, US Secretary of Defence, held a phone conversation with Rustem Umerov, Ukrainian Minister of Defence. They emphasized the US’ ongoing support for Ukraine in light of Russia’s aggression. Austin reiterated the administration’s commitment to seeking congressional resources to enable Ukraine in safeguarding its people.
On 20 October, Joe Biden, US President, and EU leaders emphasized the importance of unity in addressing the Israel-Hamas and Ukraine conflicts. Despite concerns about political challenges in Washington affecting US aid to its allies, the leaders expressed a united front. They reinforced their “strategic partnership.” Biden linked the conflicts and called for a USD 106 billion aid package supporting Ukraine and Israel. They underlined their commitment to Ukraine’s defence, with the US being a major military aid supplier.
On 22 October, the UK’s Ministry of Defence gave its intelligence update on Ukraine. According to the update, Ministerstvo Oborony Ukrayiny (Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence) reported that recent Russia’s attacks in Avdiivka have led to a 90 per cent increase in Russia’s casualties. Since February 2022, Russia has expanded its force presence in Ukraine through intensified recruitment and partial mobilization in Autumn 2022. The increased personnel are a key factor in Russia’s ability to defend its territory and conduct costly offensives. An estimated 150,000-190,000 permanent casualties (killed and permanently wounded) and a total of 240,000-290,000 casualties (including temporarily wounded) have been recorded since the conflict began. This figure excludes the Wagner Group and their prisoner battalions who fought in Bakhmut.
The Global Fallouts
Implication of the War
On 21 October, Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that North Korea has criticized the US for supplying Ukraine with ATACMS long-range ballistic missiles. It warned that any strike on Russia with these weapons will hinder peace efforts. Ukraine recently announced its use of the US-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), causing substantial damage to Russia’s occupied airfields. Sin Hong-Chol, North Korea’s ambassador to Russia, expressed deep concern and opposition from the international community regarding this delivery. He emphasized that targeting Russia, a nuclear power, could escalate the conflict in Ukraine and lead to prolonged warfare across Europe. This development came after the White House accused North Korea of supplying weapons to Russia, raising concerns about their military collaboration.
References
“Presidents of Ukraine and Türkiye discuss implementation of Peace Formula, development of bilateral relations,” President of Ukraine, 21 October 2023
“The police recorded 13 war crimes committed by the Russian occupiers against the civilian population of the right bank of the Kherson region,” National Police of Ukraine, 21 October 2023
“Russian missile attack on post office in Kharkiv Oblast kills 6, injures 14,” The Kyiv Independent, 21 October 2023
Viktoriia Stepanenko, “President’s Office Preparing Third Meeting on Zelensky Peace Formula,” Kyiv Post, 19 October 2023
“Colonel General Afzalov succeeds Surovikin as commander of Aerospace Forces,” TASS, 21 October 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 21 October 2023,” UK’s Ministry of Defence, 21 October, 2023
“Russian Foreign Ministry summons Czech diplomat over Prague's support for Ukraine,” Radio Prague International, 21 October 2023
“Military support for Ukraine,” The Federal Government, 20 October 2023
“Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III's Call With Ukrainian Minister of Defence Rustem Umerov,” U.S. Department of Defense, 20 October 2023
“US, EU show united front on Israel, Ukraine,” EURACTIV, 21 October 2023
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 22 October 2023,” UK’s Ministry of Defence, 22 October 2023
“North Korea condemns US for supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine,” Reuters, 21 October 2023